Is this what Cuomo had in mind all along?

So, it would appear that Governor Andrew Cuomo blinked on taxes — or did he? There will be a tax raise or revenue enhancer or whatever you want to call it. When he campaigned with the help of conservatives like Rupert Murdoch, Cuomo said that he was opposed to any new taxes. In order to balance the budget, he stuck it to the unions and civil servants, receiving great kudos from the news organizations and the state Senate Republicans who seem to love their Democratic governor. But like Franklin Roosevelt who also played the conservative in the beginning, this governor knows how to play the cards. I think he may well have snookered his conservative allies. His people got very mad at me when I called him Machiavellian but Machiavellian he is. The ends justify the means. Cuomo has a state budget deficit approaching four billion dollars and all the things he has done to balance the budget aren’t enough to put Humpty back together again. Or, to rely on yet another nursery rhyme, “The sky really IS falling.”

The shrewd Cuomo turned around and looked at the Democratic army behind him who were beginning to make faces at their leader. As he steadfastly refused to “re-up” the millionaires tax that is now in place, the great mirror on the wall told him that he is not the fairest in the land and his army and the voters could go south on him. You can take him at his word that he never meant to raise taxes or you can believe that he knew he would have to reverse his field at some point. In doing so, he would regain the trust of all those people who vehemently believe that millionaires should pay their fair share. Every poll has shown that people who don’t make more than a million dollars think that those who do should pay more. Cuomo advanced spurious arguments and painted a picture of all the rich people heading over the George Washington Bridge or the Holland Tunnel. No one bought it because it isn’t true. My bet is that Cuomo knew it wouldn’t fly and has been waiting for the moment to pull the parachute cord.

He couldn’t appear to change course until he got the Republican majority in the State Senate to reverse their absolute commitment to no new taxes. The Senate Republicans control their house by one vote so they can’t afford to lose one seat which they clearly would do should the Democratic Senate candidates point out that they voted against the so-called millionaires tax. We hear that the Republicans began to panic and there were talks of defections. My bet is that with the prospect of losing his conservative political allies, Cuomo struck, just as Roosevelt would have done. He started to talk about new “tax brackets” which would mean that many middle class (whatever that meant) voters would pay less and the wealthy would pay more. Of course, the devil is in the details and if “wealthy” turns out to be people who make more than a couple of hundred thousand dollars a year, Cuomo will have lost a lot of his new found friends.

Like the Cheshire Cat, Assembly Speaker Shelly Silver just smiled and kept his mouth shut. Do you really think Shelly would have kept silent if he didn’t know how the game was going to end? To those people who believe that this is a real defeat for Cuomo, I can just say, “Maybe.” I think the guy is so good at playing this game that this is what he had in mind all along. Machiavelli would have been proud. After all, the ends do justify the means.

Originally published in the Legislative Gazette, 12/6/11

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